According to the World Platinum Investment Council, platinum is expected to continue recording market deficits. These deficits are expected to average 331 koz from 2026 to 2030. The platinum market has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and demand shifts. Here are some key points regarding the market's aberrations:

Surplus and Deficit: The market recorded its first surplus in six quarters during January to March 2026, but it is expected to return to deficit for the full year 2026 due to tightening above-ground stocks and limited supply growth.

Investment Outflows: Investment outflows have driven the market surplus, with a significant portion of the surplus attributed to ETF selling rather than a collapse in physical demand.

The Gold / Platinum ratio has seen wild swings over the past 20 years. In June 2008, one ounce of gold was equivalent to 0.426 ounces of platinum. In April 2025, one ounce of gold was equivalent to 3.441 ounces of platinum. As of October 9th. 2026 one ounce of gold is equivalent to 2.486 ounces of platinum.

We regard the current  gold / platinum ratio as a typical market aberration which could experience a sudden sharp correction towards parity. It is worth noting that if the ratio would return to values seen in 2008 and based on a goldprice of $4200 per ounce, the price of platinum would trade at $9859. It is currently trading at $1680 per ounce.
The chart below shows the ratio with the weekly Bollinger bandwidth at an extremely low level, where a sudden explosion in volatility could take place.

Disclaimer

Our opinions are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Your decision whether or not to open a transaction should be based on your own due diligence and not on any representation we make to you